The CME associated with the filament eruption that occurred at
approximately 09/1000 UTC likely has some Earth-directed component,
based on its source region and presentation in STEREO-A coronagraph
imagery. Model analysis, while somewhat uncertain based on the lack of a
clear signature in LASCO C2/C3, suggests arrival on 13 May. An earlier
arrival on 12 May cannot be ruled out either, given the low confidence
in the model output.